‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.
The shockwaves of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy transports through the vital shipping lane, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a representative of the an industry group.
Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are adopting traditional burners and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."
Localized Effects
In Mumbai, media reports say up to a significant portion of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have shrunk with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers note a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Authority's View
Yet, the officials states there is adequate supply.
India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and spokespersons say cylinders are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.
About 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those imports pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the conflict.
The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".
"A degree of anxious stocking and stockpiling has been sparked by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for domestic LPG remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.
Widening Concern
Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.
According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.
India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The key weakness is LPG, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.
Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of stockpiling.
An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.
"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
