A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
