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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Older Team Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a far greater change with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may witness the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train approaching, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.