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Just two days before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where election day turned out kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he does so then no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. Thus there was some opposition. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if existed major surprises here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I think that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.