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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.