Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.